Average citizens can be much better than CIA at forecasting world events, study finds 普通の市民がＣＩＡより高い精度で世界を予測－調査
Average citizens can be much better than CIA at forecasting world events, study finds
A small group of psychologists working with the intelligence community set out to see if the average person could predict world events better than experts with inside information. It turns out, they often can － and they’re now known as superforecasters.
Three years ago, 3,000 people were chosen to participate in the Good Judgment Project, which pitted average people from a wide variety of backgrounds with the intelligence analysts. They were asked a number of questions of importance to the intelligence community, and it turned out that the best forecasters (the top one percent) predicted geopolitical events with 30 percent better accuracy than those with classified information, NPR reported.